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Author Topic: nnHRKvYsklfmHzU


Keesha
Level 0
Posts: 1
nnHRKvYsklfmHzU
on: May 5, 2013, 09:47

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Julia
Level 0
Posts: 1
Re: nnHRKvYsklfmHzU
on: March 24, 2014, 00:52

To: Kary L. KrismerRegarding desperate sllrees.Sniglet posts about his job search in this thread. He also has a pod cast, which I plan to listen to hear his perspective, but I have not done so yet.Speaking in general, the unemployed person with insurance, in other words some pay, is a lot less desperate than the person with no pay, yet the both compete in the same market. As the unemployment benefits get closer to the end, the bargaining position of the unemployed person is less and less.Also note that the unemployment insurance allows a person to decline a much lower paying job, yet a job that pays near the old rate must be taken for continued unemployment insurance qualification. In other words, a low offer will probably be refused, at least initially, but as time goes on, expectations may change. The desire of the unemployed person to sell his or her services is very similar to the desire of the home seller to sell his or her home. If you find that perfect match right away, the unemployed is in great shape, but what are the chances of that? In a hot market the chances of finding an approximate match are much better than in a cold market.I was tracking a few of the automotive parts suppliers close up shop in Michigan. One had 400 employees. A few of those 400 found something new right away, but on the other side, a few might still be unemployed. It's about the same in housing. 400 new homes come on the market. A few sell right away, yet others linger on and on. If there is a problem, a good match is hard to find.When an offer comes in, one must always ask if the NPV to decline is positive. There are some who will always take the sure thing, even at the expense of a possible big benefit. Finding a much better position could pay off, if it is found. Is it worth the risk.That brings up another thing that is very interesting. Risk tolerance.If I offer you $100 or 50/50 at $200, which would you take?If I offer you $10,000, of $2^n where n is the number of fair coin flips until a head shows up, which would you take?In other words, if the first toss is heads, you get $2.If the first toss is tails, but the second toss is heads, you get $4If the first and second toss are both tails, but the third toss is heads, you get $8and so on.In the second example, I am yet to find a single unknowing person take the $2^n coin toss option. In fact, many knowing people would rather take the $10,000, yet clearly an unbounded opportunity has a much greater than $10,000 expected value.Why is it so many people want the $10,000 when the expected payoff is much higher going with the coin tosses?For those who want the expected value computation of the coin toss option:On the first toss there is a 50% that the game ends, and a 50% that it continues.The same is true on every individual toss, as coins do not have memory, but the chances of stopping on a given level are 1:2^n (1/2 the first round, 1/4 the second round, 1/8 the third round )Expected value:$2 * 1/2 + $4 * 1/4 + $8 * 1/8 + =$1+$1+$1+ = $oo($infinite)Note that 1/2+1/4+1/8+ = 100% Rate this comment: 0 0



Moahmmad
Level 0
Posts: 1
Re: nnHRKvYsklfmHzU
on: March 25, 2014, 15:14

Showing a slow moving sttatsiic over such a short time is misleading, why did you choose to only go back to 2004, 6 years of data is an odd number? Could it be that you didn't want to include the data from the early Bush years that showed the rapid increase in unemployment started in 2000 (around the time the housing bubble burst), which then slowed by around 2004 and then accelerated again around 2008 (when the banking system imploded with fraud)? Cherry picking an oddball number of years is a sign that your twisting the data to make a point and based on a lot of the comments I'd say you're playing to the right. What would we see if you took it back 9 years or better yet 50 years? Having spent a large part of my professional life as a Geographic Information Systems (GIS, Mapping software) programmer I have a real love of Maps and how they can inform people with a single glance. It always saddens me when I see someone using them to mislead instead. Whether intentional or not, this map is obviously painting a picture that people on the far right will use to confirm their belief that the Obama administration is the cause of the unemployment uptick when in fact he inherited the sliding economy from his predecessor who inherited it from his predecessor and the real cause of the increasing unemployment may have predated them all. Raw data displayed in a map like this is cool but without the professional analysis and interpretation of what it means, it's just begging to be misinterpreted. http://oxnglvvasr.com ymjzjwhe [link=http://mtkseox.com]mtkseox[/link]



Jaylin
Level 0
Posts: 1
Re: nnHRKvYsklfmHzU
on: January 7, 2017, 01:57

A further issue is really that video gaming became one of the all-time most significant forms of enetntairment for people of every age group. Kids play video games, and adults do, too. The actual XBox 360 is just about the favorite games systems for people who love to have a huge variety of activities available to them, and who like to experiment with live with others all over the world. Thanks for sharing your thinking.



Karson
Level 0
Posts: 1
Re: nnHRKvYsklfmHzU
on: January 8, 2017, 00:16

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Jermajesty
Level 0
Posts: 1
Re: nnHRKvYsklfmHzU
on: January 9, 2017, 06:11

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